2020 Presidential Election Forecasting: Primary Model Predicts Trump Re-Election 

Primary Model Predicts Trump Re-Election 

by Helmut Norpoth

The Primary Model gives President Donald Trump a 91%-chance of winning re-election in a matchup against Democrat Joe Biden. Trump is predicted to get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176. This is not an extrapolation of a popular-vote forecast but a forecast of the electoral vote straight from the model predictors. In the event that one candidate wins the popular vote and the other the electoral vote, as happened in 2016, all that matters is the electoral vote. For the record, the Primary Model gets the electoral-vote winner right in 25 of the 27 elections from 1912 to 2016.

The editorial team at PS: Political Science & Politics is pleased to release of the 2020 Presidential Election Forecasting symposium. This year, due to the amazing work done by Ruth Dassonneville and Charles Tien, we have 12 forecasts and three critical reviews. We hope teachers, journalists, and the general public will read, reflect, and comment.  For the latest updates, follow PS on Twitter.


  1. False information. Every poll and prediction website has Biden up and 80% chance of winning.270towin, 526, ect. You’re the only place in google search saying this rubbish.

  2. Primary model does not, and could not, predict the pandemic, nor WH response or lack thereof. It Trump won the EC by around 78,000 votes, and nearly 250,000 have died unexpectedly since then, he may have lost his edge.

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