2016 Elections

The Trial-Heat and Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections

The Trial-Heat and Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections James E. Campbell, University at Buffalo, SUNY In general, election forecasting has become easier in recent years. The increased polarization of the public and […]

2016 Elections

Will Time for Change Mean Time for Trump?

Will Time for Change Mean Time for Trump? Alan I. Abramowitz, (@AlanIAbramowitz), Emory University The Time for Change forecasting model has correctly predicted the winner of the national popular vote in every presidential election since 1988. […]

2016 Elections

Primary Model Predicts Trump Victory

Primary Model Predicts Trump Victory Helmut Norpoth, Stony Brook University The Primary Model predicts with 87-percent certainty that Republican Donald Trump will defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. The forecast is unconditional, final, […]

Journals

Polling the Pollsters: A Survey of Academic Survey Organizations

Polling the Pollsters: A Survey of Academic Survey Organizations Kenneth E. Fernandez , (@KenFernandezPHD), College of Southern Nevada Jason A. Husser, (@JasonHusser), Elon University Mary G. Macdonald , Emory University Organizations conducting survey research have […]

APSA

Arthur Lupia: Let’s Be Heard Idea

Arthur Lupia, Hal R Varian Collegiate Professor at the University of Michigan and Research Professor at the Institute for Social Research, talks about the development of the Let’s Be Heard Special Issue (September 2015) in […]