PS: Political Science and Politics

The PollyVote Forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election Andreas Graefe, Randall J. Jones, J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred G. Cuzán The PollyVote is an evidence-based formula designed to forecast election outcomes, using both well-established methods and innovations. Forecasting […]

State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections: Why the Political Economy Model Predicts Hillary Clinton’s Victory Bruno Jerôme, (@BrunoJerome_Z) University of Paris , II Panthéon-Assas Véronique Jerôme-Speziari (@VeroniqueJEROME ) University of Paris-Sud Saclay  Jerome […]

National Conditions, Trial-heat Polls, and the 2016 Election Thomas M. Holbrook, University of Wisconsin,Milwaukee The National Conditions and Trial Heat model is an adaptation of the Incumbency and National Conditions model (Holbrook 2012), which was developed […]

Economic Pessimism and Political Punishment Brad Lockerbie, East Carolina University Forecasting elections is an enterprise that intrigues and amuses political scientists, politicians, and the general public. We have seen office betting pools around political science departments. […]

Forecasting the Presidential Vote with Leading Economic Indicators and the Polls Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin On election eve the presidential vote can be seen fairly clearly from trial-heat polls. […]

The Trial-Heat and Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections James E. Campbell, University at Buffalo, SUNY In general, election forecasting has become easier in recent years. The increased polarization of the public and […]

The Political Economy Model: 2016 US Election Forecasts Michael S. Lewis-Beck, University of Iowa Charles Tien, Hunter College & The Graduate Center, CUNY We have been forecasting United States presidential elections since the early 1980s, and stand […]

Will Time for Change Mean Time for Trump? Alan I. Abramowitz, (@AlanIAbramowitz), Emory University The Time for Change forecasting model has correctly predicted the winner of the national popular vote in every presidential election since 1988. […]