| Prior to the 2024 US Presidential Election, APSA’s Diversity and Inclusion Programs Department issued a call for submissions, entitled 2024 APSA Post-Election Reflections, for a PSNow blog series of political science scholars who reflect on key moments, ideas, and challenges faced in the 2024 election. The views expressed in this series are those of the authors and contributors alone and do not represent the views of the APSA. |
Why Voter Perceptions Matter: Evaluating the 2024 Election
by Michael Sacco, Kent State University
The 2024 election was defined by motivations surrounding the economy and voter perceptions about the state of the economy. Leading up to the 2024 general election, an overwhelming majority of voters viewed economic conditions negatively. It is important to understand voters’ motivations since they determine how an individual makes sense of the world around them. Thus, someone’s perception or evaluation of the world will shape their values and belief system on the government and important issues. If voters feel dissatisfied about current economic policies, or if voters feel the cost of living is too high, then that is going to affect their vote. To this end, a voter’s belief system will guide their decision-making process throughout a campaign and election cycle.
This idea is best exemplified through examining voters’ overall thoughts about the economy.
Throughout many states, the economy was at the forefront as the top issue for voters. Public concerns about inflation having an impact on day-to-day lives fueled many worries regarding the overall strength of the economy. The cost of living was also outrageously high and had a real effect on voters. This perspective shared among a majority in the electorate brought these economic realities to the limelight of this election cycle. The negative sentiments regarding inflation and the overall state of the economy became the deciding factor for many voters. For a national and complex issue such as the economy, people often look to the President of the United States and their administration for solutions to alleviate public angst. When voters do not feel any positive economic effects in real time, they perceive the administration’s solutions as inadequate.
In the case of researching the 2024 presidential election, research and analysis regularly showed the general mood of voters being pessimistic about the current economic climate and thinking the country is on the wrong track in this respect.This leads to the notion of retrospective voting, where voters make electoral decisions based on the performance of the party in power. If a voter is satisfied with how government institutions and incumbent politicians have handled policy, then that influences their vote to maintain the existing approach. Likewise, being dissatisfied with current officeholders and institutions will sway someone’s vote for an alternative option. This is noteworthy, particularly in the context of American politics, because two voters can perceive the exact same events and policies and reach two different conclusions with respect to how satisfied they are with the current course of events.
When it comes to analyzing the results of the 2024 presidential election, research often looks for answers based on population segments.
Surveys gather demographic information concerning race, age, sex, political leaning and/or affiliation, and socioeconomic status. They also may ask respondents other questions regarding the importance of issues affecting the nation. At its core, political science research involving the electorate explains the effects of political phenomena and how the public arrives at voting decisions. The social psychology of voting preferences and backgrounds is the heart of understanding the outcome of an election. Political science research extrapolates all this information with cross-tabulations of various demographics and issue-related questions to find trends among groups in the electorate.
If voters feel dissatisfied about current economic policies, or if voters feel the cost of living is too high, then that is going to affect their vote. To this end, a voter’s belief system will guide their decision-making process throughout a campaign and election cycle.In the case of researching the 2024 presidential election, research and analysis regularly showed the general mood of voters being pessimistic about the current economic climate and thinking the country is on the wrong track in this respect. This was a common trend among a majority of middle-class and working-class voters across several demographic factors, as well as among many moderate or independent-leaning voters who did not have a strong party affiliation for the 2024 presidential election. One noticeable example was the turnout among Latino voters who were dissatisfied with current economic conditions. These sentiments make it difficult for an incumbent administration to gain a lot of traction in their messaging during a campaign. This becomes a political hurdle for any incumbent candidates and puts any non-incumbent challenger at an advantage. Bridging together the theoretical frameworks of the social psychology of voters with the application of witnessing the results of public opinion and political preferences is paramount to understanding the dynamics of political phenomena through research.
Ultimately, government performance had a significant impact on voter behavior in the 2024 campaign and election cycle.
Especially when a policy area such as the economy is salient for a majority of the public, voters will evaluate candidates and make decisions based on who is more trusted to handle the salient issue. This social psychology of the electorate best exemplifies political science research since elections have societal implications. Election results reflect the will of the people in our system of representative democracy. Subsequently, elected officeholders and incoming administrators set their policy priorities that impact the public. Thus, political science research can glean valuable insights into how people wish to be governed by the politicians they elect to our governmental institutions. How the public feels about policy implementation and government performance over the course of the near future will set the stage for the next election cycle.
Michael Sacco is currently a PhD candidate in political science at Kent State University. His dissertation research integrates concepts of value congruence and representative bureaucracy into one theoretical framework in evaluating the performance of street-level bureaucrats. He is passionate about political science pedagogy and incorporating different learning methods to enhance learning objectives and result-based outcomes in the classroom. Michael previously earned his undergraduate degree in political science from Youngstown State University.