In the APSA Public Scholarship Program, graduate students in political science produce summaries of new research in the American Political Science Review. This piece, written by Ximena Caló, covers the new article by Vincent Heddesheimer, Princeton University , Hanno Hilbig, University Of California, Davis And Erik Voeten, Georgetown University, “The Green Transition and Political Polarization Along Occupational Lines”.
Why do workers in carbon-intensive industries gravitate toward far-right parties that oppose climate action? Economic insecurity and job loss might seem like natural explanations. However, a new paper by Heddesheimer, Hilbig, and Voeten reveals a different mechanism: examining Germany’s green transition, the authors show that political backlash begins not when jobs disappear, but when workers sense that society views their industries as obsolete or undesirable. The green transition sends a moral signal that generates political consequences long before its economic impacts are felt.
Germany offers a compelling case study. The country has pursued ambitious environmental policies since the early 2000s while maintaining a large manufacturing workforce. Roughly 20% of German workers are employed in manufacturing¾double the share in the United States. This creates a tension: the same nation championing renewable energy also employs millions in so called “brown jobs,” occupations concentrated in polluting-intensive industries, such as auto manufacturing, steel, and chemicals.
For years, this tension did not translate into major political conflict, largely because every mainstream German party backed the green transition. Workers in brown jobs had no partisan alternative before 2016. That year, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) substantially shifted its platform to become the sole vocal opponent of climate policies. The party began warning that environmental regulations posed “existential threats” to German industry, jobs, and ways of life.
To understand the political consequences of this platform change, the authors link election results, employment data, and a panel survey that track individuals over time. The pattern is striking: once the AfD embraced an anti-green position, regions with larger shares of workers in pollution-intensive jobs swung significantly toward the party. This was not occurring before 2016, as areas with high concentrations of these jobs were not trending differently from other regions. The realignment began precisely when a political party offered voters an outlet for their concerns.
Strikingly, the political shift extended well beyond the workers themselves. Entire communities reliant on polluting industries moved to the right, even among residents who did not work in “brown jobs” themselves. This suggests that people see their fortunes as tied to the industries that sustain their towns.
What, then, is driving this backlash if not actual job losses? The authors looked for evidence that workers in brown jobs were experiencing greater economic anxiety after 2016, worrying more about their finances or job security. They found little support for this explanation. Wages were not declining faster in these occupations, and unemployment was not rising disproportionately.
Rather, the evidence suggests that social status concerns are central. Workers in brown jobs and residents of communities dependent on these occupations report declines in perceived social standing. Because the green transition explicitly identifies certain industries for phase-out, it implicitly communicates that these occupations are undesirable or harmful. Environmental campaigns, divestment movements, and climate protests all reinforce the idea that these industries, and by extension the people who depend on them, are on the wrong side of history.
“If they dismiss the concerns of affected workers as illegitimate or out-of-touch, they risk pushing these voters toward more extreme alternatives.”This finding has important implications for how societies manage major economic transitions. Financial compensation for displaced workers, while necessary, may not be sufficient. Policies that implicitly cast certain livelihoods as morally problematic can create stigma, which in turn generates political backlash even in the absence of economic harm. People react to perceived threats to their status and identity, not solely to material losses.
The study also highlights the crucial role of political supply. Grievances alone do not determine electoral outcomes. Voters need a party that articulates those grievances. The AfD’s 2016 pivot did not create dissatisfaction among workers in brown jobs; it offered that dissatisfaction a political home. This suggests that how mainstream parties confront the green transition matters enormously. If they dismiss the concerns of affected workers as illegitimate or out-of-touch, they risk pushing these voters toward more extreme alternatives.
Heddesheimer, Hilbig, and Voeten conclude that policymakers hoping to avoid backlash must look beyond economic compensation and address the social dimensions of the green transition. Communities built around industries now targeted for phase-out need more than retraining programs. They need recognition that their past contributions were valuable, and credible pathways to preserve dignity and status in a changing economy. Without such efforts, the politics surrounding the green transition may undermine the very goals it seeks to achieve.
- Ximena Caló is a PhD student in the Department of Social and Political Sciences and the AXA Research Lab on Gender Equality at Bocconi University. Her research interests include political economy, political behavior and representation, comparative politics, and gender and politics. Before starting her PhD, she was a Pre-Doctoral Fellow at the AXA Research Lab on Gender Equality at Bocconi University. She holds an MSc(Res) in European Studies from the London School of Economics (LSE, 2020) and a BA in Political Science and Latin American Studies from Boston University (2018). In Spring 2026, she will be a visiting researcher at Stockholm University and the SNF Agora Academy at Johns Hopkins University.
- HEDDESHEIMER, VINCENT, HANNO HILBIG, and ERIK VOETEN. 2025. “The Green Transition and Political Polarization Along Occupational Lines.” , American Political Science Review, 1–23.
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