Theme Panel: Leadership and Networks: Strategies Shaping Modern Terrorism and Radicalization

August 12, 2025 APSA Annual Meeting, Theme Panels Comments Off on Theme Panel: Leadership and Networks: Strategies Shaping Modern Terrorism and Radicalization

Full Paper Panel with Virtual Participation

Participants:

  • (Chair) Page Fortna, Columbia University
  • (Discussant) Page Fortna, Columbia University
  • (Discussant) Brian Lai, University of Iowa

Session Description:

This session not only addresses pressing contemporary challenges but also lays a foundation for practical applications and long-term solutions in countering terrorism and radicalization. By exploring how extremist leaders leverage online platforms, the intersection of counter-terrorism and counter-narcotics, the impact of leadership transitions within terrorist organizations, the relationship between terrorism and repression of religion, and the evolution of violence in response to political agreements, we also bring together groundbreaking research methods, and advanced data gathering techniques.

The first study examines the pathways of radicalization within White Nationalist movements through an analysis of White Nationalist leaders’ online interpersonal communications with their followers on Twitter and Facebook. Utilizing a newly-constructed, large-scale dataset encompassing hundreds of White Nationalist leaders’ accounts and those of their followers across more than 30 countries, this paper analyzes followers’ engagement with different types of leader appeals. By employing a supervised machine learning approach, the authors uncover how misinformation and affective-laden rhetoric shape follower engagement and radicalization. The findings highlight distinct rhetorical strategies used by extremist leaders and their relative efficacy, with emotional appeals and misinformation playing critical, but unique roles in fostering radicalization.

The second paper examines how the convergence of counter-narcotics (CN) and counter-terrorism (CT) determine the US prioritization of dismantling illicit markets. When it comes to dismantling illicit networks controlled by terror groups (TG), USFP is strong in the Middle East and Asia but not in Africa, even though the latter continent has far more TG and is geographically of close proximity to the US than the other two regions. This paper explores the reasons behind that by examining how USFP determines the dismantling of illicit networks controlled by TG. USFP dismantles illicit markets where TG and drug cartels converge (Middle East, Asia), as opposed to where they don’t (i.e., Africa). The study highlights the puzzling gap by using Social Network Analysis (SNA) models, fuzzy logic model, and primary and secondary data sources. This paper illustrates two SNA models: bi-directional and unidirectional.

The third study examines leadership transitions and violent dynamics in terrorist organizations. This paper evaluates the effect of leadership transition – and namely the interregnum period between leaders – on a terrorist organization’s use of violence. The authors posit that longer transition periods will be associated with a greater risk of fratricidal violence within the organization and that the leaders that emerge will be associated with shorter tenures. Furthermore, the findings indicate that leadership uncertainty has a strong impact on the nature of violence and the success of new leaders. This paper speaks to the greater literature of weakening of TGs in the Middle East and the rebirth of TGs in different regions, such as Islamic State (IS) in Africa.

The fourth paper examines opportunistic repression to understand the relationship between terrorism and religious regulation, particularly in Muslim-majority countries (MMC). Some scholars argue that terrorism is a byproduct of state repression, especially religious repression, when it comes to MMCs and Islamist terrorism. Others contend that state repression – including repressive religious regulation – is a rational state strategy for combatting or mitigating terrorism. This study employs multiple empirical tests, including a latent variable model, utilizing new data on religious regulation from three newly independent MMCs – Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The preliminary conclusion is that religious repression has a life cycle such that even if states may initially be responding to a real or perceived threat of terrorism, it can accelerate for other reasons unrelated to terrorism.

The fifth paper examines terrorism in Northern Ireland before and after the Good Friday Agreement. The Good Friday Agreement has often been cited as marking the shift away from sectarian violence in Northern Ireland. However, sectarian violence has remained, and to better understand the peace process, the study uses a newly compiled and geo-referenced dataset on terrorism in Northern Ireland from 1996 to 2001. Through a combination of spatial, quantitative, and qualitative methodologies, the author assesses changes in the quantity and quality of terrorism in Northern Ireland, including the number of attacks, the deadliness of attacks, the destructiveness of attacks, and the perpetrators of attacks.