The Differential Effects of Economic Conditions and Racial Attitudes in the Election of Donald Trump
by Jon Green, Ohio State University and Sean McElwee, The King’s College
Competing explanations for Donald Trump’s victory have placed different levels of emphasis on racial attitudes and economic distress. We find that while racial attitudes are crucial for explaining 2016 two-party vote choice among white voters, economic distress strongly predicts non-voting among people of color. By broadening the scope of analysis to include participation in the two-party contest and by considering different racial sub-groups of the electorate separately, we add nuance to debates regarding which factor was more consequential in determining the outcome of the election.
Perspectives on Politics, Volume 17, Issue 2, September 2018