State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections


State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections: Why the Political Economy Model Predicts Hillary Clinton’s Victory

Bruno Jerôme, (@BrunoJerome_Z)
University of Paris , II Panthéon-Assas

Véronique Jerôme-Speziari (@VeroniqueJEROME )
University of Paris-Sud Saclay 

Jerome and Jerome’s state-by-state Political Economy forecast suggests Hillary Clinton wouldbe the 45 th President of the United States. The model predicts a very close race for popular vote with only 50.1% for Hillary Clinton. Nevertheless, under no toss-ups, the Democrat nominee should gain 319 electoral votes (EV) against 219 for Donald Trump. Cumulating EVs in states where Democrats have a probability to reach an absolute majority greater than 73%, at least, we find that they could count on an electoral base of 261 EVs against 219 for GOP. Four states appear to be potential toss-ups (FL, OH, NV, NM). However and surprisingly, Hillary Clinton could afford not to win in FL and OH only if she is able to grab NV and NM. A favourable economic situation in most states and a divided GOP are the primary explanation of this forecast. Reasons for this are discussed in the paper.

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PS: Political Science & PoliticsVolume 49, Issue 4 (Elections in Focus)  / October 2016, pp. 680-686