The Logic and Best Practices of Process Tracing (QMMR A)
Half Day Short Course
9:00am – 1:00pm
This foundational short course introduces participants to the methodological logic, philosophical foundations, and practical applications of process tracing, a within-case method for developing and testing causal explanations in political science and related disciplines. Designed for scholars across all subfields, the course explores both scientific realist and interpretive philosophies of science as they relate to causal inquiry.
The session begins by examining causal mechanisms—the core analytical focus of process tracing—and how they differ from causal effects and interpretive notions of causation. Participants will gain an understanding of how process tracing gathers evidence through archival research, document analysis, interviews, ethnography, and surveys, while addressing the inferential and ethical challenges posed by these methods.
The course then moves into the logic and best practices of process tracing analysis, introducing participants to formal tools such as Bayesian reasoning and directed acyclic graphs, alongside informal strategies frequently used in qualitative research. Key best practices for both data collection and analysis will be discussed and applied to exemplar studies in international relations and comparative politics, with transferable relevance to sociology, public policy, business, and beyond.
The latter portion of the course offers an in-depth look at two distinct approaches to process tracing. Bayesian process tracing, led by Tasha Fairfield, emphasizes hypothesis comparison, evidence evaluation, and inferential transparency through mental simulation and belief updating. Interpretive process tracing, introduced by Jeffrey Checkel, takes a more inductive approach focused on local causation, reflexivity, and ethical engagement.
Participants will split into discussion groups led by Fairfield and Checkel to explore these approaches in greater depth. This course also pairs well with the afternoon short courses Qualitative Bayesian Reasoning (QMMR B) and Interpretive Process Analytics (QMMR C), but can be taken independently.
Instructor Bios:
Jeffrey T. Checkel is Professor of International Relations at the European University Institute and a long-time instructor of APSA’s flagship process tracing courses.
Tasha Fairfield is an Associate Professor at the London School of Economics and recipient of the 2024 APSA-QMMR David Collier Mid-Career Achievement Award for her work on Bayesian qualitative inference.