Incumbent Party Reelection in Australia, Canada, and the United States: An Exponential Decay Model

Incumbent Party Reelection in Australia, Canada, and the United States: An Exponential Decay Model

By Richard J. Heggen, University of New Mexico and Alfred G. Cuzán, University of West Florida

Exponential functions, widely used in the physical sciences, also have been used to model political phenomena. To our knowledge, however, this tool has not been used to replicate the electoral survival of the government or administration in several democracies. This article reports that an exponential survival model is a good fit for the reelection rate of the party that controls the executive office in states, territories, or provinces in three countries: Australia, Canada, and the United States.

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