Year: 2016

Economic Pessimism and Political Punishment Brad Lockerbie, East Carolina University Forecasting elections is an enterprise that intrigues and amuses political scientists, politicians, and the general public. We have seen office betting pools around political science departments. […]

Forecasting the Presidential Vote with Leading Economic Indicators and the Polls Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin On election eve the presidential vote can be seen fairly clearly from trial-heat polls. […]

The Trial-Heat and Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections James E. Campbell, University at Buffalo, SUNY In general, election forecasting has become easier in recent years. The increased polarization of the public and […]

The Political Economy Model: 2016 US Election Forecasts Michael S. Lewis-Beck, University of Iowa Charles Tien, Hunter College & The Graduate Center, CUNY We have been forecasting United States presidential elections since the early 1980s, and stand […]

Will Time for Change Mean Time for Trump? Alan I. Abramowitz, (@AlanIAbramowitz), Emory University The Time for Change forecasting model has correctly predicted the winner of the national popular vote in every presidential election since 1988. […]

Primary Model Predicts Trump Victory Helmut Norpoth, Stony Brook University The Primary Model predicts with 87-percent certainty that Republican Donald Trump will defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. The forecast is unconditional, final, […]

Every presidential election is different. But there is different and then there is 2016. As the nomination contests and their surviving candidates have made clear, this year’s election looks to be very different. Most notably, […]