The Trial-Heat and Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections James E. Campbell, University at Buffalo, SUNY In general, election forecasting has become easier in recent years. The increased polarization of the public and […]
The Political Economy Model: 2016 US Election Forecasts Michael S. Lewis-Beck, University of Iowa Charles Tien, Hunter College & The Graduate Center, CUNY We have been forecasting United States presidential elections since the early 1980s, and stand […]
Will Time for Change Mean Time for Trump? Alan I. Abramowitz, (@AlanIAbramowitz), Emory University The Time for Change forecasting model has correctly predicted the winner of the national popular vote in every presidential election since 1988. […]
Primary Model Predicts Trump Victory Helmut Norpoth, Stony Brook University The Primary Model predicts with 87-percent certainty that Republican Donald Trump will defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. The forecast is unconditional, final, […]
Every presidential election is different. But there is different and then there is 2016. As the nomination contests and their surviving candidates have made clear, this year’s election looks to be very different. Most notably, […]
Polling the Pollsters: A Survey of Academic Survey Organizations Kenneth E. Fernandez , (@KenFernandezPHD), College of Southern Nevada Jason A. Husser, (@JasonHusser), Elon University Mary G. Macdonald , Emory University Organizations conducting survey research have […]
Naming Rites for Naming Wrongs: What We Talk about When We Talk about Woodrow Wilson by Dara Z. Strolovitch, Princeton University & Chaya C. Crowder, Princeton University From calls to remove Andrew Jackson from the $20 bill […]
Transforming Silence into an Active, Present Awareness: What to do about Wilson’s Legacy by Todd Shaw, University of South Carolina Probably William Faulkner’s most frequently cited quote is, “The past is not dead. In fact, it’s not […]
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