2016 Elections

Social Desirability, Hidden Biases, and Support for Hillary Clinton

Social Desirability, Hidden Biases, and Support for Hillary Clinton  Ryan L. Claassen, Kent State University John Barry Ryan, (@ryanbq), Stony Brook University An emerging consensus suggests that women are underrepresented in government because of biases in the […]

2016 Elections

When Playing the Woman Card is Playing Trump by Leslie Caughell

When Playing the Woman Card is Playing Trump: Assessing the Efficacy of Framing Campaigns as Historic Leslie Caughell, (@lcaughell), Virginia Wesleyan College  Political pundits assume that being the “first” confers some advantage to candidates. Such […]

2016 Elections

Watching Elections 2016 with a Gender Lens

 Watching Elections 2016 with a Gender Lens by Kelly Dittmar, (@kdittmar), Rutgers University The presence of women candidates in both major parties’ presidential primaries, including a likely woman Democratic nominee, has increased the attention paid […]

2016 Elections

The PollyVote Forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election

The PollyVote Forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election Andreas Graefe, Randall J. Jones, J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred G. Cuzán The PollyVote is an evidence-based formula designed to forecast election outcomes, using both well-established methods and innovations. Forecasting […]

2016 Elections

State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections

State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections: Why the Political Economy Model Predicts Hillary Clinton’s Victory Bruno Jerôme, (@BrunoJerome_Z) University of Paris , II Panthéon-Assas Véronique Jerôme-Speziari (@VeroniqueJEROME ) University of Paris-Sud Saclay  Jerome […]

2016 Elections

National Conditions, Trial-heat Polls, and the 2016 Election

National Conditions, Trial-heat Polls, and the 2016 Election Thomas M. Holbrook, University of Wisconsin,Milwaukee The National Conditions and Trial Heat model is an adaptation of the Incumbency and National Conditions model (Holbrook 2012), which was developed […]

2016 Elections

Economic Pessimism and Political Punishment

Economic Pessimism and Political Punishment Brad Lockerbie, East Carolina University Forecasting elections is an enterprise that intrigues and amuses political scientists, politicians, and the general public. We have seen office betting pools around political science departments. […]