2016 Elections

State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections

State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections: Why the Political Economy Model Predicts Hillary Clinton’s Victory Bruno Jerôme, (@BrunoJerome_Z) University of Paris , II Panthéon-Assas Véronique Jerôme-Speziari (@VeroniqueJEROME ) University of Paris-Sud Saclay  Jerome […]

2016 Elections

National Conditions, Trial-heat Polls, and the 2016 Election

National Conditions, Trial-heat Polls, and the 2016 Election Thomas M. Holbrook, University of Wisconsin,Milwaukee The National Conditions and Trial Heat model is an adaptation of the Incumbency and National Conditions model (Holbrook 2012), which was developed […]

2016 Elections

Economic Pessimism and Political Punishment

Economic Pessimism and Political Punishment Brad Lockerbie, East Carolina University Forecasting elections is an enterprise that intrigues and amuses political scientists, politicians, and the general public. We have seen office betting pools around political science departments. […]

2016 Elections

The Trial-Heat and Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections

The Trial-Heat and Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections James E. Campbell, University at Buffalo, SUNY In general, election forecasting has become easier in recent years. The increased polarization of the public and […]

2016 Elections

Will Time for Change Mean Time for Trump?

Will Time for Change Mean Time for Trump? Alan I. Abramowitz, (@AlanIAbramowitz), Emory University The Time for Change forecasting model has correctly predicted the winner of the national popular vote in every presidential election since 1988. […]

2016 Elections

Primary Model Predicts Trump Victory

Primary Model Predicts Trump Victory Helmut Norpoth, Stony Brook University The Primary Model predicts with 87-percent certainty that Republican Donald Trump will defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. The forecast is unconditional, final, […]